Digital World Goes Mainstream

The Best Data Wins

According to a Nov. 5 Wall Street Journal article, “Polls Taken Just Before Voting Hit Target On US Pres”, “elections are one of the best chances to measure polling results against reality.” That is precisely the reason as a market research professional I closely followed the polling results. My conclusions are 1) that online polling beats telephone polling and 2) sample size matters – a lot.

The most accurate predictions were all from online polls. Telephones, and the people who answer them, do not reflect the population at large as well as the Internet population. Within the online world, the polls that got it right had the biggest sample sizes. Only one poll got it exactly right – BIGresearch of Columbus, OH. BIGresearch’s October survey tapped over 8000 online respondents, balanced 14 ways against the Census population. The data said 51% Bush, 46% Kerry and 3% Nader among likely voters who are decided, a close match to the final actual result of 51% Bush, 48% Kerry and 1% Nader. (http://www.bigresearch.com/samples/BIG-president-final.pdf)

If the results of all the other polls had been aggregated to create a similar sample size, similar results would likely have emerged. Given this kind of validation, it is little wonder that corporate America is seeing a surge in large sample, online market research techniques. In times of uncertainty, the best data wins.

Carol